By Joe Garofoli : sfchronicle – excerpt
The next four months will go a long way toward determining whether London Breed will continue to be San Francisco’s mayor.
The clock starts ticking this week, when the APEC conference — an international gathering attracting President Biden, doom loop-curious international journalists and scores of protesters — puts San Francisco and all its ills and joys under the microscope.
But that is only the first test Breed will face. The election isn’t until November 2024, but we will know how vulnerable Breed will be by spring, thanks to a timeline that the mayor set in place for herself…
“If it was my candidate and I staked a lot of money and my candidate’s credibility on these ballot measures and they go down, then you have to throw your hands up and say, ‘This is not for me this time,’ ” said Jim Stearns, a longtime San Francisco Democratic consultant.
Even if just one measure loses, Stearns said, “that means that she will have spent a lot of political capital and won’t have moved the needle” on what voters think about her. That makes the ballot measure move “a kind of win-at-all costs strategy for them.”
Yes, for two decades Stearns has advised Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, who will be closely watching March’s results to see whether they give him a reason to jump in and provide a progressive voice in the race. For now, Stearns said, “I don’t have the green light from him that’s happening.”
Meanwhile, tying yourself to ballot measures comes with risks for Breed…
Breed hopes to bask in the reflected glow of these ballot measures, and wow, does she need their positivity. Only 32% of respondents to a September survey from the moderate GrowSF advocacy organization approve of the job she’s doing.
Worse: 68% of respondents felt that San Francisco is going in the wrong direction. That’s a political doom loop for any incumbent…
I don’t know if those (ballot measures) are going to offer quick change,” said Kanishka Cheng, CEO of Together SF Action, a moderate political advocacy organization that has not taken a position on the measures yet. “The public is sort of out of patience. So if they approve things in March, and they don’t see results by November, I don’t think they’ll have much patience left.”…(more)
You cannot play the blame game forever. The media and the political wags are hot on the trail. Either someone is done or it isn’t. The voters will not be easy to fool. The real question is who is going to run for state offices. Not a lot of options on those postions yet.